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		<title>Eskimos Outlast Stampeders In Wild CFL Matchup</title>
		<link>http://www.avalanchellc.com/business-marketing/eskimos-outlast-stampeders-in-wild-cfl-matchup</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 17 May 2010 07:39:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ross Everett</dc:creator>
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		<category><![CDATA[Canadian Football League]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[The Edmonton Eskimos survived a wild back and forth CFL shootout against the Calgary Stampeders before prevailing 38-35 to take over sole possession of first place in the CFL West. Ricky Ray hit Fred Stamps with a 23 yard touchdown pass with just nine seconds to play to earn the victory, erasing the lead that Calgary had earned with their own TD pass less than a half minute earlier. Edmonton improved to 4-3 with the win, while Calgary dropped to 3-4.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Edmonton Eskimos survived a wild back and forth CFL shootout against the Calgary Stampeders before prevailing 38-35 to take over sole possession of first place in the CFL West. Ricky Ray hit Fred Stamps with a 23 yard touchdown pass with just nine seconds to play to earn the victory, erasing the lead that Calgary had earned with their own TD pass less than a half minute earlier. Edmonton improved to 4-3 with the win, while Calgary dropped to 3-4.</p>
<p>Winning QB Ricky Ray said that he enjoyed playing in the shootout:</p>
<p>&#8220;That was a ton of fun. In the CFL you get to play in a lot of games like this, especially against a guy like (Calgary quarterback Henry) Burris, who has done this to us. It&#8217;s great to come out on the winning end of a shoot-out like that. It&#8217;s a great uplift for the team. It&#8217;s a huge win for us.&#8221;</p>
<p>Eskimos head coach Richie Hall said that the outcome couldnt have been timed any better:</p>
<p>&#8220;Regardless of what happens, we are coming back in first place. Now we have one up on Calgary. It&#8217;s going to be a dogfight for all the teams in the West and any chance you get to win, especially a win like this, it&#8217;s a real bonus. It&#8217;s great for our confidence.&#8221;</p>
<p>Calgarys Burris remembered a very similar situation in a game last year where Edmonton won by the same margin on a last play touchdown:</p>
<p>&#8220;They got us last year in this situation and of course you didn&#8217;t think it was going to happen again or even could happen again. It felt so great to get that late touchdown and with 38 seconds on the clock nobody was even thinking about last year. We had to stop Jackson and we didn&#8217;t. And we had to stop Ray and we didn&#8217;t. Kudos to Edmonton.&#8221;</p>
<p>Calgary returns to action on Aug. 28 in Toronto while the Eskimos will next play on Aug. 29 when they host Hamilton. The two CFL provincial rivals from Alberta will face each other twice more this season.</p>
<p>Ross Everett is a freelance sports writer and respected authority on World Cup betting. His writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sports news and sportsbook directory sites. He lives in Las Vegas with three Jack Russell Terriers and an emu. He is currently working on an autobiography of former interior secretary James Watt.</p>
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		<title>Understanding The Differences Between CFL Canadian Football And The NFL</title>
		<link>http://www.avalanchellc.com/business-marketing/understanding-the-differences-between-cfl-canadian-football-and-the-nfl</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 07 May 2010 07:16:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ross Everett</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[While football in the United States is associated with crisp autumn days and cool nights, in Canada professional football begins in the summer time. While NFL training camps won't open until mid-summer by then the Canadian Football League (CFL) will be well into their regular season schedule.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>While football in the United States is associated with crisp autumn days and cool nights, in Canada professional football begins in the summer time. While NFL training camps won&#8217;t open until mid-summer by then the Canadian Football League (CFL) will be well into their regular season schedule.</p>
<p>American football fans may not realize just how long and storied the history of Canadian pro football CFL style actually is. The league has been around since&#8217;30 and the Grey Cup championship (essentially the CFL Superbowl) has been in existence since&#8217;09. Many NFL stars got their start in the CFL including Doug Flutie, Jim Kelly, and Jeff Garcia.</p>
<p>The CFL is a very professional and highly competitive league, but its important to understand some important differences between it and the NFL:</p>
<p>At the most basic level, the football itself is bigger than the NFL ball. It is longer and fatter than the NFL ball. The CFL goal posts are on the goal line, while the NFLs are on the end line at the back of the endzone. The CFL field is also longer (110 yards) and wider (65 yards vs. the NFLs 53.5 yards), and the CFL end zones are 20 yards deep as opposed to 10 yards in the NFL.</p>
<p>Teams have 12 players on the field at once as opposed to 11 in the NFL. On offense, the extra player is a receiver, on defense a defensive back. And unlike the American game, where teams have 4 downs to move the ball ten yards the CFL has only 3. Maybe the hardest thing to get used to when listening to CFL broadcasts is the frequently references to teams going two and out. There are a few other subtle differences as well&#8221;teams only have 1 time out per half, only 20 seconds between plays, and all backfield players can be in motion prior to the snap (as opposed to only one in the NFL).</p>
<p>There are also differences in the scoring of the game. The first time I saw a CFL score tied 1-1 at the end of the first quarter I thought I was hallucinating. A major rule difference between the CFL and NFL is the fact that teams can score a single point, which those clever Canadians call a single. Basically, a team is awarded a single point for a missed field goal or a punt that lands in the end zone.</p>
<p>Of all the rule differences between the NFL and CFL the one that has the most significance on the game isnt enforced on the field; its enforced in the GMs office. Canadians are big on laws and rules to protect their national identity&#8211;thats why their TV and radio stations are required to devote a certain percentage of their airplay to Canadian content. That has led to a number of Canadian-only media stars both good (The Tragically Hip, Sloan) and bad (Avril Lavigne, early 90s white rapper Snow). The CFL has a similar rule which requires that&#8217; of the 40 players on a roster must be Canadian born. This keeps the CFL from becoming a de facto NFL developmental league, and helps maintain its unique identity.</p>
<p>Perhaps the greatest misunderstanding is that the average NFL fan looks at the rules of the Canadian game with more players, a wider field, and fewer downs and concludes that the game is a wide open shootout similar to Arena Football. Thats not really the case&#8211;you&#8217;ll see some offensive battles but most games end up with final score totals in the mid to high 40s. In Arena Football, youll frequently see teams with potent offenses enforcing their will over and over again against teams with porous defenses. You don&#8217;t see that too often in the CFL. The rules may be different, but as is the case in American pro football you need a solid rushing game and a stout defense to win games and championships.</p>
<p>Furthermore, the parity that you see in the NFL where on any given Sunday any team can beat any other team is magnified in the CFL. The primary reason is the rules mandating Canadian native players. I dont think itll offend any Canadians if I suggest that football is played at a higher level in American high schools and colleges. That means that at least 50% of each team is of essentially equal level of talents. Now that may be a bit of an oversimplification&#8221;certainly there are differing levels of talent among Canadian players&#8221;but the Canadian native rules do serve to further codify the inherent tendency toward parity that you see in most professional sports.</p>
<p>The CFL isn&#8217;t in a financial position to draw the top level US players away from the NFL or, in most cases, even a NFL practice or developmental squad. While some US players are uniquely suited to the CFL style of play, most of the US players that end up there are of a similar talent level as to that seen in Arena Football.</p>
<p>The bottom line is that despite the rule differences and personal quotas the CFL game is still football and can be enjoyed the same way. Once you understand the unique attributes of the Canadian game youll start to enjoy it almost as much as the NFL.</p>
<p>In the pre-Internet era, it was often difficult for US fans to find information on the CFL. They don&#8217;t get coverage on ESPN, but they receive extensive attention in the Canadian press. Each CFL city has their own sports media, and the official CFL website also has many resources including previews and statistics.</p>
<p>Ross Everett is a widely published freelance sports writer and highly respected authority on sports betting odds comparison. He writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sports news and sportsbook directory sites. He lives in Las Vegas, Nevada with three Jack Russell Terriers and a kangaroo. He is currently working on an autobiography of former interior secretary James Watt.</p>
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		<title>The Mapes Hotel: Reno&#8217;s Lost Art Deco Jewel</title>
		<link>http://www.avalanchellc.com/business-marketing/the-mapes-hotel-renos-lost-art-deco-jewel</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 13 Apr 2010 07:08:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ross Everett</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[The Mapes Hotel in Reno, Nevada met its demise on Superbowl Sunday of 2000 when 75 pounds of explosives packed inside the structure's support columns brought it to the ground. The controlled demolition came despite years of effort by a number of groups within the community to preserve the building with lawsuits, redevelopment proposals, and grass roots lobbying efforts. The National Trust for Historic Preservation even took up the cause, challenging the destruction in a lawsuit that eventually reached the Nevada Supreme Court.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Mapes Hotel in Reno, Nevada met its demise on Superbowl Sunday of 2000 when 75 pounds of explosives packed inside the structure&#8217;s support columns brought it to the ground. The controlled demolition came despite years of effort by a number of groups within the community to preserve the building with lawsuits, redevelopment proposals, and grass roots lobbying efforts. The National Trust for Historic Preservation even took up the cause, challenging the destruction in a lawsuit that eventually reached the Nevada Supreme Court.</p>
<p>While the logic and necessity of demolishing the Mapes is very questionable, one thing that is certain is that the hotel was an important part of Northern Nevada history. The opening of the Mapes in&#8217;47 ushered in a new era in casino gambling, and changed the economy and way of life in Nevada forever. The Mapes was actually the first property in the country to combine a hotel, casino and live entertainment under the same roof. It also became the hotel of choice for celebrities staying in Northern Nevada. Clark Gable and Marilyn Monroe stayed at The Mapes during the filming of &#8216;The Misfits&#8217;. Joseph McCarthy, America&#8217;s famed anti-Communist crusader, admitted to a reporter over cocktails in the Mapes Lounge that he really didn&#8217;t have a list of Communists in the US despite his frequent and vitriolic insistence to the contrary.</p>
<p>In the 50s and 60s it became, along with Lake Tahoes Cal-Neva Lodge the place to be seen in Northern Nevada. The top floor, window-walled Sky Room showcased performances by the legends: Frank Sinatra, Dean Martin, Jackie Gleason, Louis Prima, Mae West, Milton Berle, Sammy Davis, Jr., and the Marx Brothers among others. Subsequent years were not kind to downtown Reno but the Mapes continued to do well during the 60&#8242;s and 70&#8242;s. The hotel finally closed in&#8217;82, due more to financial difficulties experienced by the Mapes family caused by one of their other Northern Nevada gaming properties than anything else.</p>
<p>While the last twenty years brought an amazing boom in the population and economy of Southern Nevada, the Northern part of the state didn&#8217;t see much of it at all. For that reason, the urgency of destroying the Mapes is even more questionable. In the Las Vegas area, its easy to justify the demolition of older hotels with simple economics&#8211;the older properties simply can&#8217;t compete in the current mega-resort dominated marketplace. Furthermore, the insane valuation of the land on which they sit makes it financially unfeasible to preserve them as pop culture museums.</p>
<p>That&#8217;s not the case in Reno, where vacant land and/or buildings ripe for redevelopment are abundant downtown and in the other casino areas of the city. The official reason that the Mapes had to come down was that the city needed the land to expand its vision for downtown redevelopment. While this is certainly a much needed effort, to suggest that the existence of the Mapes was a barrier is absurd. In fact, many of the proposals rejected by the city would have gone a long way to enhance the revitalization of downtown Reno and included artists lofts, office space and other mixed used properties. Despite receiving a number of viable concepts for the Mapes Building, the City Redevelopment Authority rejected all of them and the Mapes was destined for demolition.</p>
<p>The role of the City Redevelopment Authority was questioned throughout the process. Overlooking the Truckee River, the hotel was on a prime location between the downtown casino area and the riverfront district. A number of sound financial proposals were presented that would preserve the integrity of the structure including condominiums, office space, and perhaps most viable, upscale senior apartments. Oddly, all of these proposals were turned down by the citys Redevelopment Agency which continued to maintain that demolition was the only viable option despite copious evidence to the contrary.</p>
<p>Following the 2000 demolition, the lot remained vacant for over a year until a temporary ice skating rink was hastily constructed the following winter. The site now houses a permanent ice skating rink which, while not a bad use for the land, isn&#8217;t the sort of game changing improvement suggested by the City Redevelopment Agency and their adamant insistence that the building be demolished. To the contrary, it appears they had no specific plan or even general idea of what to do with the land but for some reason wanted to see the hotel come down. This has led to all manner of speculation, ranging from financial self interest to a rumor that the structure was &#8216;haunted&#8217; and needed to be destroyed to forestall future paranormal activity in Washoe County. Whatever the reason, the city of Reno lost a valuable landmark that played a significant part in the economic growth of the entire state.</p>
<p>Ross Everett is a widely published freelance writer and noted authority on sports betting odds comparison. He writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sportsbooks and betting odds portal sites. He lives in Las Vegas with three Jack Russell Terriers and an emu. He is currently working on an autobiography of former energy secretary Donald Hodell.</p>
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		<title>Rio De Janerio Becomes First South American City To Host Olympic Games</title>
		<link>http://www.avalanchellc.com/business-marketing/rio-de-janerio-becomes-first-south-american-city-to-host-olympic-games</link>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 03 Apr 2010 07:34:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ross Everett</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[South America will host the Summer Olympic Games for the first time in 2016, as Rio De Janeiro, Brazil was awarded the honor on Friday. Rio beat out the US choice of Chicago, Illinois along with Tokyo, Japan and Madrid, Spain to earn the right to host the games. Despite a high pressure effort from the American power elite--including President Barack Obama and TV gabfest queen Oprah Winfrey--Chicago was the first city eliminated from contention. Tokyo was the next to go, before Rio got the nod over Madrid in the final round of balloting.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>South America will host the Summer Olympic Games for the first time in 2016, as Rio De Janeiro, Brazil was awarded the honor on Friday. Rio beat out the US choice of Chicago, Illinois along with Tokyo, Japan and Madrid, Spain to earn the right to host the games. Despite a high pressure effort from the American power elite&#8211;including President Barack Obama and TV gabfest queen Oprah Winfrey&#8211;Chicago was the first city eliminated from contention. Tokyo was the next to go, before Rio got the nod over Madrid in the final round of balloting.</p>
<p>Bookmakers offered odds on the host city choice, with Rio listed as second favorite at +200. Chicago had been the wagering favorite at most books, particularly after President Obama got involved personally in the US bid effort. Chicago was bet as high as a -300 favorite, while Madrid and Tokyo were priced in the +250 range. Some suggest that Tokyo didnt deserve to have such short odds, but was the beneficiary of regional pride from the notoriously enthusiastic betting population of Japan.</p>
<p>Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, President of Brazil, got the better of his US counterpart Barack Obama The Brazilian leader stressed the unfairness that South America had never hosted the games in his speech to the committee;</p>
<p>&#8220;It is a time to address this imbalance. It is time to light the Olympic cauldron in a tropical country.&#8221;</p>
<p>The Olympic committee was apparently swayed by this presentation and paid no mind to Rios many downsides. It is without a doubt the most dangerous of the finalist cities, where drug cartels and armed bands of thugs roam without impunity. Well do to Rio citizens are used to removing watches and jewelry before they drive anywhere lest they be targeted by carjacking brigands. Rios murder rate is also one of the highest in the world. Brazilian bid officials have stressed that security will be a priority at the games and it better be lest the Olympics turn into a bloodbath.</p>
<p>Some IOC members suggested that the summary dismissal of Chicagos bid was more of a rebuke of the notoriously corrupt USOC. The last two Olympics held in the US were tainted by crime and corruption. The&#8217;96 Atlanta Olympics were disrupted by a terrorist bombing, while the 2002 Salt Lake City Winter Games were marred by a well known bribery and corruption scandal.</p>
<p>Ross Everett is a widely published freelance sports writer and noted authority on World Cup betting. His writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sportsbooks and sportsbook directory sites. He lives in Las Vegas with three Jack Russell Terriers and a kangaroo. He is currently working on an autobiography of former energy secretary Donald Hodell.</p>
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		<title>NFL Preseason Handicapping Basics</title>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 22 Feb 2010 08:20:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ross Everett</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Betting preseason NFL games never fails to elicit an irreconcilable difference of opinion among sports betting enthusiasts. Some consider it a very poor wagering opportunity, while others maintain that there's no better moneymaking opportunity in sports than pro football's preseason. The truth is probably somewhere between the two extremes--NFL preseason betting must be approached with caution and discipline, but offers the potential to make a tidy profit before the regular season kicks off.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Betting preseason NFL games never fails to elicit an irreconcilable difference of opinion among sports betting enthusiasts. Some consider it a very poor wagering opportunity, while others maintain that there&#8217;s no better moneymaking opportunity in sports than pro football&#8217;s preseason. The truth is probably somewhere between the two extremes&#8211;NFL preseason betting must be approached with caution and discipline, but offers the potential to make a tidy profit before the regular season kicks off.</p>
<p>First, let&#8217;s examine the case against preseason NFL wagering. Clearly the biggest argument against it is the simple fact that the games don&#8217;t count. Though spots will exist during regular season games when the motivation and preparation of individual teams may vary, in theory both teams want to win. That&#8217;s not always the case in preseason football, since different coaches have different goals. Some might want to just evaluate their personnel, others might want to establish a winning attitude, and all coaches want to keep their stars from getting injured. Factor in all of the variables and conflicting agendas, the preseason naysayer would argue, and there are just too many unknowns to consider taking a financial position on.</p>
<p>But like the old saying goes &#8220;every dark cloud has a silver lining&#8221;. And the divergent agendas at play in preseason football can be seen as precisely why it is a good wagering opportunity. For example, say the Superbowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers are set to play an &#8216;also ran&#8217; team like the Houston Texans. By regular season standards, the Steelers would almost certainly be favored. In the preseason, however, they&#8217;ll often have a different agenda for the individual game. A &#8220;better&#8221; team has more concern about protecting key players. and usually has fewer personnel decisions to deal with. They don&#8217;t need to worry about implementing coaching changes, or creating &#8216;team chemistry&#8217;. As a result, &#8216;better&#8217; teams frequently approach preseason games as a mere annoyance.</p>
<p>NFL &#8216;doormats&#8217;, meanwhile, have a markedly different agenda to their more successful counterparts. They&#8217;ve often got heated competition for starting positions or key back up roles. They&#8217;ve often got new coaching staffs that players want to impress. Most significantly, they&#8217;re in great need of establishing a winning attitude. A win against an elite team in a &#8216;meaningless&#8217; preseason game often has a much greater value to this type of team than to a playoff contender.</p>
<p>While some teams could care less about the result of preseason games, few want to enter the regular season having lost them all. In light of this fact, a successful preseason situation that has stood the test of time is to bet on teams that lost their first two exhibition games outright. This situation has produced a winning percentage right around 60%.</p>
<p>The philosophy of a NFL head coach is arguably the single most important factor contributing to preseason success. Some coaches always want to win, even if the games don&#8217;t count in the standings. Other coaches place a much greater importance on evaluating personnel and giving backups playing time they won&#8217;t have the opportunity to get during the regular season. The coaches that have a strong desire to win in the preseason often result in their team&#8217;s pointspreads being inflated somewhat, but a motivated team is always worth consideration for a wager.</p>
<p>One of the best tools that a handicapper has at his disposal during the preseason is the Internet. Actually, it&#8217;s a great tool year round but during the preseason it is invaluable. The best source of information on coaching philosophies, game plans, injuries, lineup changes, etc, are the local sports pages of NFL teams. Basically, the situation during preseason is that there is a lot of interest in the team and a lot of anxious beat writers looking to write stories. The problem is that there is little in the way of real news, and for that reason you&#8217;ll find the sort of minutiae on teams and players from which you can often extract relevant handicapping information. Even if there aren&#8217;t any nuggets of handicapping gold, you can at least get a feel for the coach&#8217;s goals for the game and the amount of playing time that key players will see. Sometimes coaches will come right out and say who will play at what juncture of the game, and will occasionally go on record that personnel decisions like evaluating all of the guys they&#8217;re considering for the backup defensive secondary jobs are more important than winning. Clearly, operating with this knowledge is a distinct advantage and operating without it can be fatal. There&#8217;s nothing more frustrating than betting on a team only to have them look like they could care less whether or not they win the game. During the preseason, however, it can frequently be prevented with some simple research and analysis.</p>
<p>The bottom line is that while the NFL preseason does offer some solid moneymaking opportunities, its not a &#8216;free cash grab&#8217;. It&#8217;s best viewed as an opportunity to grind out a small profit, but as always its essential to maintain the same degree of discipline in handicapping and money management as at any other time during the pro football season.</p>
<p>Ross Everett is a respected freelance writer specializing in travel, poker and sports handicapping. He is a consulting handicapper for Anatta Sports where he is responsible for providing daily free sports picks. In his spare time he enjoys fine dining, flower arranging and scuba diving. He lives in Las Vegas with four dogs and a pet coyote.</p>
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		<title>MMA Flashback: Aoki Beats JZC In Rematch</title>
		<link>http://www.avalanchellc.com/business-marketing/mma-flashback-aoki-beats-jzc-in-rematch</link>
		<comments>http://www.avalanchellc.com/business-marketing/mma-flashback-aoki-beats-jzc-in-rematch#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 18 Feb 2010 08:21:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ross Everett</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[After a controversial no contest in their first matchup, there was no doubt as to the winner of the DREAM 2 rematch between Shina Aoki and JZ Calvan. Aoki controlled the fight from the opening bell and used a wide repertoire of submission attempts to keep his opponent off balance and on the defensive.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>After a controversial no contest in their first matchup, there was no doubt as to the winner of the DREAM 2 rematch between Shina Aoki and JZ Calvan. Aoki controlled the fight from the opening bell and used a wide repertoire of submission attempts to keep his opponent off balance and on the defensive.</p>
<p>Aoki scored early with a takedown and controlled Calvan on the ground, working a heel lock attempt before taking his opponents back and attempting a rear naked choke. In the second, Aoki put on a submission clinic and demonstrated his ungodly flexibility as he spun from an armbar to a triangle choke and back again. Calvan was able to counter or escape, but looked completely out of sync as he generated almost no offense whatsoever.</p>
<p>Aoki was very emotional in his postfight speech to the crowd. JZC had grumbled about the no-contest in their DREAM 1 matchup, and the one sided decision made him even more dejected in his postfight press interviews.</p>
<p>With the victory Aoki advances to the semifinals of the lightweight GP tournament. Aoki has made some statements in the Japanese press leading up to the fight that win or lose there would be no way hed be ready for the next round with only half the preparation time as the rest of the field. Hopefully the impressive victory and the enthusiastic response from the holiday week Tokyo crowd will change his mind.</p>
<p>The rest of the card was devoted to the opening round of the middleweight GP tournament. Taiei Kin defeated Minowa-man Ikuhisa Minowa in a very closely contested and entertaining fight. Minowa was clearly tired in the 2nd, and that likely sealed the deal for Kin.</p>
<p>Korean judoka Yoon Dong-Sik also advanced with a unanimous decision victory over Shungo Oyama. Most of the damage in this fight came from Yoons ground and pound from full mount, and he controlled the tempo from the outset. Two one sided contests followed, with Zeleg Galesic submitting Magomed Sultanakhmadov via arm bar in a minute and a half of the first round. That was followed by the MMA debut of former Pac 10 wrestling standout Ian Murphy, who had a worst case scenario draw against BJJ specialist Ronaldo Jacare.</p>
<p>Ross Everett is a widely published widely published freelance sports writer and respected authority on World Cup betting. His writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sportsbooks and sportsbook directory sites. He lives in Northern Nevada with three Jack Russell Terriers and an emu. He is currently working on an autobiography of former energy secretary Donald Hodell.</p>
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		<title>Future Book Betting Traps And How To Avoid Them</title>
		<link>http://www.avalanchellc.com/business-marketing/future-book-betting-traps-and-how-to-avoid-them</link>
		<comments>http://www.avalanchellc.com/business-marketing/future-book-betting-traps-and-how-to-avoid-them#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 04 Feb 2010 08:07:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ross Everett</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Sports betting futures wagers can be an entertaining and profitable investment, but there are a number of pitfalls. These are some things to avoid:]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Sports betting futures wagers can be an entertaining and profitable investment, but there are a number of pitfalls. These are some things to avoid:</p>
<p>You gotta shop around: More specifically, you have to &#8216;shop points&#8217; just as you would with a straight bet. This is crucial in all forms of sports betting but particularly key with futures wagers. There are often greater variances in the prices from book to book on future plays than any other type of wagering proposition. The reason for this is simple&#8211;most books are less concern with what the &#8216;other guys&#8217; are doing as they are with keeping their own position &#8216;in balance&#8217;. All in all, the sports betting marketplace just doesn&#8217;t react as quickly to changing futures prices as it does to individual game lines.</p>
<p>Don&#8217;t try to pick the winner in a competitive marketplace: This may sound sort of counter intuitive since the general idea of betting on futures is to determine the actual winner but it&#8217;s really not. Like everything else, its essential to always be mindful of the value you&#8217;re getting. In a futures market with several legitimate contenders at the top the price offered is seldom high enough to properly compensate for the risk you&#8217;re assuming. Here&#8217;s an example: in a hypothetical NCAA hoops tournament Duke is +200 to win the national championship. They&#8217;ve certainly got a shot, but at a payback of only 2/1 its hard to justify a wager at this point with the potential for so many interceding events that can make a championship more problematic. Such events as injuries, a tough tournament draw or even just going into a slump at the wrong time can happen to any team but when you bet a higher priced team&#8211;a &#8216;dark horse mid major at 15/1 for example&#8211;you&#8217;re getting &#8220;compensation&#8221; for assuming the &#8220;risks&#8221; of betting on a proposition with so many unknown variables.</p>
<p>To put this in more theoretical terms, the &#8220;true odds&#8221; of Duke winning the NCAA Championship are almost certainly higher than the price we&#8217;re getting. Obviously, determining the &#8220;true odds&#8221;, or actual probability of a future event is an inexact science but think of it this way: if the NCAA tournament was played 100 times would Duke wind up winning 50 of those? Given the number of other good teams and the propensity for upsets along the way, its doubtful. For the sake of argument, lets say that Duke has a 33% chance to win the tournament. That means that I wouldn&#8217;t consider a bet on Duke to be a good value unless I was getting a price that a) accurately reflected the true probability of their winning and b) gave me some compensation for assuming the &#8220;risk of the unknown&#8221; inherent in taking the position so far in advance. At +500 I might be interested, but at +200 the value just isn&#8217;t there.</p>
<p>Note that the more competitive the market, the more difficult it is to find good value on the favorites. Since you can make a case for quite a few teams to win the NCAA tournament at this point this particular futures market is clearly a very competitive one. In a less competitive marketplace it might be possible to &#8220;pick the winner&#8221; and have it be a good value though you will pay a price for this. Here&#8217;s a (thankfully) hypothetical example: let&#8217;s say the UFC decided to hold a one night round robin tournament with 5 competitors. Competitor #1 would be heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar. The other four competitors would be professional figure skaters Elvis Stojko, Rudy Gallindo, Brian Boitano and Evgeni Plushinko. Even if he didn&#8217;t bring his &#8220;A game&#8221;, Lesnar would be essentially have a 100% certainty of beating the four untrained fighters, who also happen to be rather effeminate. If a sportsbook installed Lesnar as a -1000 favorite a bet on the 63 265 pound takedown would still be theoretically a good value. It&#8217;s always difficult to risk so much to win a little, but from a strictly theoretical standpoint its a good play.</p>
<p>Don&#8217;t try to make a huge profit with little risk: Sports betting provides few opportunities to make a &#8216;big killing&#8217;. It may happen occasionally, but even the big payouts when it occurs doesn&#8217;t make chasing big longshots a good value. If you&#8217;re serious about sports betting it is crucial to maintain your focus on the underlying numbers and look for value at all times. If you want to take a longshot at a huge jackpot, play the lottery but don&#8217;t try to do it at a sportsbook.</p>
<p>On a more theoretical level, a big price alone is no way to justify a wager. The concept of value works the same at the bottom of the barrel as it does at the top: make sure the price you&#8217;re getting on an underdog accurately reflects their &#8220;true odds&#8221; of winning.</p>
<p>Don&#8217;t bet one sided props: Sometimes sports books will offer silly bets just to get publicity or in some cases just to be funny. While there may be life on other planets, the &#8216;true odds&#8217; of a Martian being named to President Obama&#8217;s cabinet wouldn&#8217;t justify a +5000 line that it would occur.</p>
<p>Ross Everett is a widely published freelance writer and highly respected authority on sports betting odds comparison. He writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sportsbooks and sportsbook directory sites. He lives in Northern Nevada with three Jack Russell Terriers and an emu. He is currently working on an autobiography of former interior secretary James Watt.</p>
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